James continues recapping each week of NFL action at our favorite daily fantasy sites, DraftKings and FanDuel
Week 11 had Scoring At An All-Season Low
Wow, just wow. To see a millionaire made even though he had a guy held to under 10 points on his team doesn’t happen too often, and the numbers back it up. According to DraftKings, Week 11 had the lowest scoring “perfect lineup” of the season so far with 261.94. The 10 week average so far is over 30 points higher at 294.92 per week, with week 3 being almost 100 points higher with 348.02 points in that “perfect lineup.”
Usually around this time of the year, I like to start blaming the weather because “the cold is defense weather”. But watching to the good ol’ Red Zone Channel, I don’t remember one game with drizzle, or bad wind, or seeing anyone’s breath in the freezing cold. Except for that under-the-jersey, over-the-helmet hoody James Jones was sporting, everything looked beautiful.
The glaring trend can most likely be attributed to injuries.
There are a possible of 8 backup quarterbacks getting the start in week 12.
Not to mention the game-time and in-game losses of running backs the like of Marshawn Lynch, Charcandrick West, Devonta Freeman, Justin Forsett, and even Adrian Peterson inexplicably on the sidelines wearing an overcoat and laughing while the game was still within reach and the rest of the starters were playing.
It also didn’t help that the Saints, Giants, Steelers, and Browns were all on Bye. That’s 3 DFS gold offenses to play and stack and all 4 have defenses you love to play against.
8 of the top-20 highest owned players on DraftKings were RB’s, and only 1(McFadden) of them scored over 13.2 points.
Yet, Thomas Rawls got the late start and rewarded the 1-2% of owners who got him into their lineups with over 200 yards rushing and 2 touchdowns. His low ownership was almost wholly attributed to the late scratch of Lynch, as most teams went with low-salary and/or good-matchup RB’s like the 7 busts mentioned above.
However, some of the running backs who’ve been performing well lately continued their ride. Doug Martin hit 200 yards rushing, but no TD’s hurt his overall score. Giovani Bernard continues to be the Bengal back to own by scoring almost 4 points per week over the more expensive Jeremy Hill. LeSean McCoy continues to score points since returning from injury five weeks ago and is averaging over 20 PPG, with a paltry salary of $5,500. Jonathon Stewart and McFadden are other low $5K salary starters who will keep benefiting from their quarterbacks’ play on the field.
TE’s Are Still All Over The Board
Gronkowski is always expensive. But at an ownersip rate of over 25%, it seemed like there were enough cheap options at other positions to be able to afford him…and by did he disappoint.
Greg Olsen is usually the 2nd most expensive TE, and while he’s only put up over 20 points 2 times, he’s also only scored fewer than 9.5 ppg, twice. Which makes him a solid consistent play at a position that’s very volatile, as proven by Gronk’s off week.
There are 15 other TE’s who all average over 10 points per game, and all are at least $2,100 cheaper than Rob Gronkowski. Even Greg Olsen costs $6,200 as opposed to Gronk’s $7.900 salary this week. Olsen seems to be the safest play in cash games, and even has a high enough ceiling to be owned by a high percentage of owners in tournament play. I don’t think Gronk’s worth his price, and if you don’t go with Olsen, then there are obviously a lot of other options…especially if you do your research.
Top-WR’s Rule Again
I don’t mean to toot my own horn, but my advice to start the season was to never fade a great receiver unless they were injured. Julio Jones continues to be worth his price as the most expensive player and was owned by plenty of winners this week. But something like 98% of owners obviously didn’t read heed my advice as DeAndre Hopkins had a great game against Darrelle Revis and with TJ Yates throwing to him.
Other “never fade” WR’s are Antonio Brown and Odell Beckham Jr. Alshon Jeffery is on the list, especially at his sub $7K salary. Mike Evans is very close to being on this list, if he only he could shake the drop-itis. For some reason, I really like Allen Robinson to be on the list. And if Amendola emerges healthy, he rounds out the rest of the list.
QB Values Can Be Found
Cam Newton is in the MVP race with Tom Friggin Brady and he’s still priced nearly 20% cheaper than him as the 6th most expensive QB. His ball-catchers are coming around, and as always, he adds points on the ground.
Jameis Winston is another guy I love at his price. Not to mention his 5 touchdown game last week. His defense isn’t great, and his offensive supporting cast is really good. And he happens to be pretty good himself.
Tom Brady is still great, but has to score a ton of points to justify his price. Carson Palmer continues to be one of best quarterbacks this year. And Blake Bortles and Ben Roethlisberger are great values with both being under $6,700.
How The Millionaires Won
Noles2418 won the million dollars from DraftKings with a whopping 210.74 points. There have been weeks where I’ve scored that and not placed. Again, with 3 of the top offenses and 4 of the worst defenses on BYE, to go along with all the injuries, this score won by almost 10 points.
Noles2418 was actually about 38 points out of first, which was tens of thousands of places away from first, but his “monday night bullets” of Amendola and McCoy came through huge to help him jump the rest of the field.
Amendola and Julio were both highly owned, but Danny was cheap enough to afford Julio and both combined for over 50 points. When scoring is this low, defense matters much more, and KC was the highest scoring D at a mid-range price. Greg Olsen did what he does and put up those consistent points. And West’s injury could’ve been devastating if he wasn’t owned by nearly 60% of the league.
The stars here were obviously Cam and his 5 TD’s and Rawls and his huge output, while being so cheap and lowly owned.
In FanDuel, rvdwyertx won it a little bit differently. The first thing they did was stack a QB/RB, which is a highly advised against strategy since they might vulture each others’ points. At home, against a weak San Fran D, I guess sometimes you’re allowed to go against the grain and it obviously worked out to the tune of $300,000.
rvdwyertx(I’m copy and pasting this crappy name, by the way), also rostered a bust at RB in Latavius Murray who only put up 8.8 points. With Houston as the Defense, this winner had an even tougher battle to overcome with 2 of the 9 players only netting 16.8 points.
WR, WR, WR’s saved the day though, with rvdwyertx having a beastly trio of Julio, DeAndre, and Amendola. To finish it off with the steady Eddy of Greg Olsen.
More Great Reads