Continuing is our series of weekly winners recaps from James Gagnon
Week 5 Notes – Scoring Climbs
After an average week of scoring in Week 4, point totals jumped in Week 5 and had 6 games combine for over 50 points, with 4 of those games combining for 57 points or more.
The winner of FanDuel’s $5M Sunday Million jumped from 176.12 points winning week 4 to 206.54 needed to win week 5. That’s over a 17% jump.
In DraftKings; last week the winner of their NFL $7M Millionaire Maker won with 200.2 points while it took 255.62 points in week 5 for a nearly 28% jump.
The Buccaneers and Jaguars scored the most combined points with 69 points, continuing their trends of horrible defensive play. The Jags give up an average of 29 points per game to rank 31st in the league. While the Bucs have given up 31 or more points 3 times; 42 in week 1, 37 in week 4, and 31 this week. Oddly enough, all three of those defensive lapses for Tampa were home games. The Buccaneers were able to win with 38 points, however, getting 3 TD’s from Doug Martin.
Is Mighty Mouse Back?
Doug Martin was owned by both millionaire contest winners in DraftKings($4,700 – 5.4% – 39.8 pts.) and FanDuel($6,400 – 3.6% – 35.3 pts.), and looked good for his second straight 100 yard game after missing 15 of 32 games over the last 2 seasons. His final rushing line was 24 att – 123 yds. – 2 TD with an added 3 receptions for 35 yards and a TD through the air.
Jax was ranked 4th in rush defense before Might Mouse tore them apart. His other 100 yard performance came against Carolina, who currently rank 6th in rush defense, so he’s not playing “patty-cake” defenses.
With a solid WR duo in Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson… the emergence of Austin Sefarian-Jenkins… and the continued growth of quarterback Jameis Winston, Doug Martin could be in line for some big games down the stretch. He’s on BYE this week, so some owners might forget about him when the Bucs return to play in week 7 against a so-so Washington Redskins rush defense. Don’t be one of them, especially at his price point.
How The Weekly Winners Won – Lineups Breakdown
Fan Duel – Joshua9028 won by taking some chances on players such as Doug Martin and Antonio Gates, but the team was also mixed with a good bit of highly owned guys like Odell Beckham Jr, Devonta Freeman, Julian Edelman, and Denver D. Going to show, you can get as cute as you want with your lineup, but when it comes down to it, there is nothing wrong with rostering players owner on a lot of lineups. Differentiation is fine, to a certain degree.
According to FanDuel’s Insider, Joshua9028’s win was fueled on Monday night by Antonio Gates’ performance. Without Gates’ 11 yard TD, Joshua9028 would’ve finished in 10th place for $20,000 instead of 1st for that cool million.
Joshua9028’s roster – 206.54 points
QB – E. Manning ($7,700 – 7.1% – 29.74 pts.)
RB – D. Freeman ($7,600 – 26.9% – 29.2)
RB – D. Martin ($6,400 – 3.6% – 35.3)
WR – O. Beckham Jr. ($9,000 – 17.6% – 21.9)
WR – James Jones ($6,400 – 12.3% – 14.7)
WR – J. Edelman ($7,700 – 30.6% – 20)
TE – A. Gates ($5,500 – 14.1% – 25.7)
K – M. Bryant ($4,800 – 7.9% – 8)
DT – Denver ($4,900 – 22.1% – 22)
Eli Manning was owned on 7 of the top-10 teams
Doug Martin on 4 of the top-5
Julian Edelman on 4 of 5
Green Bay and Denver on 8 of 10
DraftKings – As the winner of DraftKings’ Millionaire Maker, Chentai15 also used a mix of players with high ownership; Forsett, Freeman, and Edelman along with some differentiation with guys like Sam Bradford and Mighty Mouse himself. As well as owning Antonio Gates, but with the Flex position that DraftKings employs, he was owned by a lot more of the top teams (7 of 10) compared to FanDuel.
Where Chentai15 separated itself a little bit was by rostering Green Bay instead of Denver(owned by teams 2nd – 9th). Even though the Packers only gained 1 more point than the Broncos, Chentai15 was able to save $500 to spend elsewhere.
Chentai15’s Roster – 255.62 points
QB – S. Bradford ($6,000 – 5.4% – 22.62 pts.)
RB – J. Forsett ($5,800 – 23.8% – 30)
RB – D. Freeman ($6,300 – 21.7% – 35.7)
WR – J. Edelman ($7,000 – 28.9% – 25)
WR – A. Robinson ($5,500 – 10.9% – 26.2)
WR – E. Sanders ($7,400 – 6.7% – 23.1)
TE – A. Gates ($4,200 – 14.0% – 30)
Flex – D. Martin ($4,700 – 5.4% – 39.8)
DT – GB ($3,100 – 6.3% – 23)
Notes, Thoughts, Info
- Freeman and Martin were paired together on 5 of the top-10 teams
- At least one of A. Robinson or A. Hurns were on 9 of the top-10 teams
- The #4 team, which won $150K, stacked both Jags WR’s with Blake Bortles, who was the 3rd highest-scoring QB at a salary of $5,100.
- GB and Denver were owned on all top-10 teams
Monday Night Bullet
When the matchup present itself, I like to roster a Monday night player. I have no numbers to prove it except my own experience, but it seems like the team in 1st place after Sunday night never wins. I know I’d be happy to be 1st after Sunday night, but I’d be as far away from a TV and my phone as possible. It obviously doesn’t matter when a player plays, you have to build your best lineup possible. But there is something to be said about the extra day and a half of rest and playing under the big lights. The adverse can be said about the Thursday night game; players tend the hate them because of the short week leading up, so I almost never play games that include Thursday night games.
There are advantages to using the Monday Night Bullet Strategy, especially on DraftKings, which has 2 very different rules from FanDuel. The first is the roster lock. In FanDuel, rosters lock at kickoff of the first 1 o’ clock game. In DraftKings, players can be switched out up until kickoff of their game(with other players who’ve yet to play, obviously). So, if you use a MN Bullet in the Flex spot, you can see where you stand after the 1 o’ clock games and see if you need to adjust your risk level and maybe plug in a safe 4 o’ clock guy or a player from the Sunday Night game.
The second rule difference is the Flex position. In FanDuel, you lock a player in at their respective position. But the Flex position in DraftKings allows you to use a RB, WR, or TE. Again, you can use a wait and see approach here, and then you have a ton more options to switch to, even if you’re rostering a low-priced flex play. Especially then.
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