NFL Week Fourteen Value Plays at DraftKings
Aaron Rodgers – Green Bay Packers $9,800
This is possibly the toughest decision of the week as Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck came close to my high salary pick, though Rodgers edges it for a couple of reasons. Firstly, the Packers face the Falcons this week, who have given up the most runs in the league against the pass. Secondly, Rodgers has the best QB rating in the league, and this improves immensely if you take out the road games. Although the most expensive quarterback in the league this week, I still see Rodgers as good value.
Colin Kaepernick – San Francisco 49’ers $6,500
Kaepernick had a very disappointing game against the Seahawks and because of this will not feature in many line-ups this week. However this could be a perfect time to strike, as Kaepernick will surely bounce back against the 1-11 Raiders, on the back of a 52-0 defeat. The 49’ers are just one game back of a wild card spot, so will be highly determined with just four games to go and another big defeat for the Raiders will surely see Kaepernick earn a whole load of points.
Arian Foster – Houston Texans $9,300
Arian Foster is averaging over 100 rushing yards per game (behind only DeMarco Murray in the league) and has actually been much more impressive on the road this season, rushing for 137 yards per game. This week Foster and the Texans travel to play the Jaguars, a team who have shown some greenshoots of recovery – but they are still 2-10 and Foster will surely relish this match up.
Mark Ingram – New Orleans Saints $6,500
Ingram had one of his best games of the year last time out, running for 122 yards on 23 attempts. This week the Saints play the Panthers who are on a run of six straight defeats. Ingram is another player who performs particularly well as home, with 20 yards per game more in New Orleans. He will have plenty of opportunities this week against a team ranked 29th in total defense.
Pierre Thomas – New Orleans Saints $4,000
This is possibly my cheapest pick of the whole year, but good points are more than possible this week. As stated when picking Ingram, the Panthers won’t offer too much this week and Thomas does offer something of a dual threat. In three home games this year Thomas has rushed for 84 yards and has had 17 receptions for 135 yards and has a total of 3 touchdowns. A repeat of similar figures will see $4,000 look like value, but I expect him to do better in this game.
Jordy Nelson – Green Bay Packers $8,100
Having already picked Rodgers, it makes sense to pick Nelson, especially if playing in a big entry tournament. If they combine as they have been doing recently, you could see some huge points this week from the combination, and there is nothing to suggest that they won’t. Are they expensive as a combination? Yes, but as stated when picking Rodgers, I think there is definite value here.
Odell Beckham Jr – New York Giants $7,700
After ‘that catch’ in week 12, Beckham Jr has been the talk of the league, but it would be fair to say that it wasn’t a flash in the pan. His last five games have seen him receive for 156, 108, 93, 146 and 90 yards with a couple of touchdowns. This week the 3-9 Giants face the 2-10 Titans, though it would be fair to say that the Giants are not that bad, despite a run of seven losses – their last 3 defeats have seen lose by a total of just 10 points. In the Titans, they face a team 32nd in total defense.
Jarvis Landry – Miami Dolphins $5,600
I picked Landry last week and he caught 8 passes for 68 yards, his second best return of the season. I see him as value again this week. This is mainly due to them facing the Ravens this week, this team being ranked 31st against the pass. This is a huge game for both teams as the loser could see their wildcard hopes dashed, but I think the Dolphins are the better of the two 7-5 teams, their schedule being much more difficult so far.
Antonio Gates – San Diego Chargers $4,700
Gates had seven receptions for 83 yards last week, his second best game of the year. This week Gates and the Chargers have a tough assignment when the Patriots come to town, but the Patriots are ranked 23rd against the pass, so Gates will have opportunities and this is possibly a good week to play the Patriots after their hard fought defeat to the Packers. Gates looks cheap this week.
New Orleans Saints – $3,000
Nothing seems to be going right for the Panthers right now, and look a far cry from the team that went 12-4 last year. At 5-7, you’d think the season would be over for the Saints, but they are right there fighting for the NFC South title with the Falcons and will be fully focused against the Panthers in the Superdome, a team who are amazingly not out of playoff contention despite being 3-8-1. I don’t see the Panthers doing much on offense this week, so the Saints look value.